The Current State of the Oil Business  09/18/2025

 A Bullish Outlook 

Robust Fundamentals & Strategic Tailwinds

 

The oil sector today is far from stagnant — it is resting on a foundation of resilient demand, constrained spare capacity, and heightened geopolitical risk premiums. While macro headwinds and supply expansions have kept prices from surging uncontrollably, recent events and structural dynamics present compelling upside for those with capital and operational agility.

 

*Key Drivers Uplifting Oil Prices*

-Geopolitical disruptions & supply risk premium

The recent wave of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting major Russian energy hubs has shaken perceptions of stability in global supply lines. Notably, attacks on the Primorsk export terminal and the Kirishi refinery have triggered fears of export interruptions, helping lift Brent and WTI prices. Reuters+2

AP News+2

 

-Tightening OPEC+ discipline amid measured supply increases

OPEC+ recently agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day starting October — a modest step relative to prior month-to-month increases. The restrained pace signals that producers remain cautious to preserve a tighter market balance.(oilprice.com)

 

-Energy Information Administration

Plateauing U.S. shale growth under capex discipline

While U.S. production is projected to remain near all-time highs in 2025.

 

-Persistent demand growth in emerging markets

Although OECD demand faces headwinds, growth in non-OECD markets (notably India and Southeast Asia) remains resilient. OPEC continues to project demand rising ~1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, holding a relatively bullish view compared to more conservative forecasters. Argus Media